A 15-day forecast starting May 21 predicts the impact of Covid-19 in Bangalore City (Bengaluru Urban) will be reduced. Bangalore is currently the epicentre of India’s ongoing second wave, an outbreak featuring the most infectious strains of the virus thus far. The forecasting model by Crediwatch Information Analytics, a Bengaluru-based data science and technology company, will come as relief to the city’s overburdened healthcare sector that has been fighting at the front lines of the pandemic.

The forecast focuses on three key parameters relating to Covid care:

• the number of cases that require hospital beds,
• availability of beds that require intensive care and ventilators,
• the amount of medical oxygen required to treat

Crediwatch’s model predicts that all three parameters are moving in a favourable direction. All three parameters are now with the ‘green’ indicators, showing that there is no emergency shortage of medical care or supply of oxygen in India’s third largest economic centre.

According to Subir Kumar Bandyopadhyay Machine Learning Architect at Crediwatch, the model uses the “dependent relationship between an observation and lagged observations (AR) and also the dependency between an observation that is a residual error from the moving average model” to arrive at its conclusion.