A team of scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology- Kanpur & Hyderabad have been working on a mathermatical model called Saturated-Unsaturated Transport (SUTRA), to predict the spread of the virus.

The scientists have stated that in the case of COVID-19, it is clear that the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly. In such a context, any prediction for COVID-19 must be continually readjusted, sometimes almost daily.

The team is working closely with the government and the inputs have always been received positively. While they could not predict the exact nature of the second wave earlier, the team is continuing its efforts to better estimate its future trajectory.

"We have been working on a mathematical model to predict the spread of the virus. It is important to note that a mathematical model can only predict future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility don’t change substantially over time. Mathematical models can also provide a mechanism to predicting alternate scenarios corresponding to various policy decisions such as non-pharmaceutical interventions", said the scientific team.