Year
of consolidation
With the adoption of
right business model, strategy and a wave of consolidations the global
biotech industry continues to register good growth and gears up for
competing in the new global marketplace.
The aggregate value of biotechnology drugs are set to grow
56 percent between 2008 and 2014, from $108 billion to $169 billion.
This contrasts sharply with conventional chemistry drugs, which are
projected to grow 5.6 percent in aggregate, with total sales forecast
to be $565 billion in 2014 versus 2008 sales of $535 billion. According
to market research firm EvaluatePharma, biotechnology drugs will
account for 50 percent of the top 100 drug sales by 2014, up from just
28 percent in 2008. This has offered hope for the future prospects of
the industry, as the first generation of biotechnology drugs to reach
commercial maturity are unlikely to be subjected to the same intensive
generic competition as small molecule drugs. This has certainly
provided biotechnology-focused companies with a more stable base from
which to build long-term growth. Towards this, the large pharma
companies are getting dependant upon alliances and in-licensing to gain
access to technologies and new molecular entities from the biotech
players.
The year 2008-09 has been a year of consolidations that is changing the
face of the industry. Whether it is Ranbaxy-Sankyo deal,
Pfizer’s acquisition of Wyeth, Merck’s purchase of
Schering-Plough or Genentech’s deal with Roche, the strategy
is all the same i.e, to build a robust business model for competing in
the new global marketplace. With many blockbuster drugs going
off-patent in the next few years, innovation is one area we all have
been focusing on. This has resulted into partnering or acquiring newer
compounds from smaller, independent, innovation-focused biotech
companies. In 2008, bio-pharma companies spent more than $60 billion on
R&D worldwide.
Global industry
performance
According to Ernst & Young’s “Global
Biotechnology Report 2009,” the global biotechnology industry
delivered a solid financial performance in 2008 despite worldwide
economic turmoil. According to the report, there are four
sweeping paradigm shifting trends that should lead to new, more
sustainable ways of funding drug development: a wave of generic drugs
based on today’s top blockbusters, the expansion of
personalized medicine, fundamental healthcare reform in the United
States, and the continued globalization of the industry.
“This is not business as usual for the biotech
industry,” said Glen Giovannetti, Ernst &
Young’s Global Biotechnology Leader. “Unlike prior
funding droughts, this crisis is systemic, deep and protracted. To
thrive in this environment, firms will need to bring the creativity
that has long been the industry’s hallmark in establishing
more durable models for funding innovation.”
New pathways to
sustainability
The challenge for the industry, according to Glen Giovannetti, is
turning an existential threat into a Darwinian opportunity. The
potential solution lies in four paradigm-shifting trends that promise
to accelerate the transition to sustainable business models:
Generics: Generics based on today’s top blockbusters should
loosen governments’ and insurers’ budgetary
constraints and mitigate pricing pressures on innovative drugs,
permitting better margins.
US healthcare reform: The potential shift toward universal healthcare
coverage in the world’s largest drug market will likely
incorporate pay-for-performance in reimbursement decisions. Incentives
for true innovation should help biotechs sustain returns.
Personalized medicine: Personalized medicine will increase the relative
value of research and early development—biotech’s
traditional strengths—giving biotechs more bargaining power
and better valuations. Meanwhile, more efficient drug development will
lower R&D costs, making it easier for firms to make the journey
to self-sufficiency.
Globalization: Growing strengths in emerging markets will facilitate
creative solutions—from new “win-win”
ways of allocating increasingly valuable ex-US rights to creative
alliances and new sources of capital. Meanwhile, Asian business models
could provide solutions for struggling Western firms.
“But these trends will also bring new market
pressures—from a higher bar on reimbursement to new sources
of competition. “To seize the opportunities in these four
drivers, companies need to be proactive,” said Giovannetti.
“Firms should understand how these trends impact them,
prepare for them, and where possible, help shape them.”
Regional performance
Although lack of capital fund in 2008-09 has been an issue, but with
most of the countries today having well-developed biotechnology
programs coupled with right strategy could overcome the financial
crisis and went ahead registering good growth. According to
E&Y, revenues of US public biotechs grew by 8.4 percent in
2008, down from 11.3 percent in 2007. The US publicly traded industry
posted an aggregate net profit of $0.4 billion for the first time.
Despite the crisis, venture capital raised in the US reached $4.4
billion in 2008—the second-highest total in history, behind
only the record $5.5 billion raised in 2007. Europe registering a
better performance, revenues of public biotechs increased 17 percent to
€11.2 billion but capital raised by European biotechs fell
from €5.5 billion in 2007 to less than €2 billion in
2008.
Coming to Asian biotech industry performance, the Asia Pacific biotech
revenues grew by 25 percent in 2008, led by strong growth in Australia.
In Australia, public-equity funding fell to levels not seen since 2002.
There were a handful of IPOs in Japan and China and strong
private-equity funding growth in India.
According to the Scientific American report released at BIO 2009,
countries like Brazil, China, India, Singapore, Denmark and Israel have
emerged with enormous bioscience potential. While the US retains its
preeminent position in the biotechnology sector overall in terms of
innovation capacity, it doesn’t top in every category. Israel
leads when it come to foundations support, i.e., how much business and
government expenditures are earmarked annually for biotech
infrastructure development. Israel has the greatest business
expenditures on R&D as a proportion of GDP than any other
country. Other interesting countries include Singapore, which has the
most post-secondary science graduates per capita, followed by Ireland
and Australia. And in 2008, Iceland is described as having high biotech
intensity, a measure of the amount of commercial biotech activity.
Iceland has the greatest overall intensity, it has the most public
companies per capita followed by Denmark and the most public company
employees per capita followed by Ireland.
Government support
As investments in most aspects of biotech and biomedicine are likely to
pay-off over the long haul, the governments are playing a significant
role and coming up with some of the most aggressive programs to support
biotech in the respective countries. Year 2008-09 has been good in
terms of government support and policies. It all started with President
Obama reversing restrictions that former President George W Bush
imposed on federal funding for stem cells in 2001. And in a move
signaling the beginning of a new age in stem cell research, the Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first-ever clinical trial of
stem cell therapy on human subjects. Joining the league, the Drug
Controller General of India (DCGI) too gave its nod to a proposal on
stem cell-based research for human clinical trials in India.
Introduction of a regulatory pathway for biosimilars in the US, the
Australian government approving field trials of GM Canola and the
Taiwan government establishing a $1.7 billion venture capital fund with
the aim of turning the island country into a biotech hub are yet other
developments in this direction. Thus looking at the positive impact of
the recent upsurge in M&A activity, evolved strategies paired
with good government support, the future prospects of the industry can
be assessed to sustain good growth.
Jahanara Parveen