Semaglutide Generics Disrupt GLP-1 Market, Erode Tirzepatide Dominance: Sheetal Sapale

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The GLP-1 agonist segment witnessed a significant transformation in March following the launch of semaglutide generics, altering both competitive dynamics and growth patterns. While the overall market value declined from Rs 191 crore in February to Rs 180 crore in March, the dip reflects a structural shift rather than a decline in demand, according to data from Pharmarack Technologies.

Sharing insights on the market, Sheetal Sapale, Vice President – Commercial at Pharmarack Technologies, noted that Semaglutide emerged as a key growth driver, adding nearly Rs 10 crore in value and expanding its market share to around 33 per cent from 23–25 per cent earlier, supported by the rapid uptake of more affordable branded generics. In contrast, tirzepatide, which previously dominated the segment, saw a sharp decline of approximately Rs 21 crore, with its market share dropping from about 71 per cent to 64 per cent, indicating a clear redistribution of market share.

Sheetal Sapale continued to point out that the entry of lower-priced generics has significantly improved accessibility, driving a sharp increase in volumes and shifting the market from a value-led to a volume-driven model. Unit sales nearly doubled on a normalized basis, while injectable formulations recorded exponential growth due to better adherence, convenience, and proven efficacy. However, value growth remained relatively moderate due to aggressive pricing strategies adopted by both generic manufacturers and innovator companies.

Sheetal Sapale further highlighted that the market is witnessing a “gold rush” scenario, with several Indian pharmaceutical players including Torrent, Dr. Reddy’s, Zydus, Lupin, and Sun Pharma entering the segment aggressively. Within just the first 10 days of launch, the top three to four players captured nearly 20 per cent market share, reflecting strong first-mover advantage. Despite this, innovator companies have managed to retain a significant presence through price rationalization and established brand strength.

Looking ahead, Sheetal Sapale observed that the GLP-1 agonist market is expected to maintain strong growth momentum over the coming months, driven by continued launches and increasing adoption. While regulatory advisories on appropriate usage may introduce some caution in prescribing behaviour, the overall trajectory remains robust as the market rapidly evolves in the wake of semaglutide generics.