The value of the global Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) therapeutics market will increase modestly over the next 6 years, from almost $3 billion in 2014 to $3.5 billion by 2021, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.3%, says business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company's latest report states that this rise will occur across the eight major markets of the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, and will be primarily driven by increasing immigration from medium and high-prevalence countries.

Mr Priyatham Salimadugu, analyst for GBI Research, says: "The US, which has one of the largest shares of the HBV treatment market, sees considerable migration from high-prevalence countries, such as the Philippines, China, and Vietnam.

"While immigration will enlarge the patient pool, HBV treatment market expansion will be restricted by prophylactic vaccination in the US and much of Europe."

However, the analyst adds that the increasing use of the premium therapies tenofovir and entecavir will help to drive the market during the forecast period.

Despite this, the global late-stage pipeline is weak due to the lack of first-in-class and innovative products in late-stage clinical development.

Mr Salimadugu continues: "The products in late-stage development are either mostly generic, biosimilar or an alternative salt formulation, such as GS-7340, which is a different salt formulation of Viread. As a result, apart from GS-7340, which will capture Viread's prescription share, the pipeline products are not going to impact the market by 2021.

"Furthermore, overall low diagnosis and treatment rates due to the asymptomatic nature of the condition and a lack of awareness, coupled with current drugs serving the market adequately, will hinder further growth. Leading brands treating the condition are also facing competition from generic drugs as major patents approach expiry."

According to GBI Research, the patents of HBV therapeutics expected to expire during the forecast period include Roche's Pegasys, Gilead's Viread and Novartis' Sebivo.